First Severe Weather Event of Spring Possible Tonight

Strong low level moisture advection will continue this evening resulting in moderate elevated instability tonight across south central Kansas. This in combination with seasonally strong cloud-bearing shear will be more than adequate ahead of the forcing from the approaching upper trof and Pacific front/pseudo dry-line to support strong/marginally severe convection across the Wichita metro. Short term model consensus supports a timing window from about 11 pm to 3 am CST from west to east across south central Kansas. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible. A higher end risk for severe will reside just south in Oklahoma where storms will have a better chance to be quasi-surface based with even a tornado risk also possible. In the wake of the early morning convection, a relative lull will prevail during the post-sunrise morning with some warming with expected breaks in the clouds within the dry slot region of the upper trof. As we head into the evening hours on Tuesday, the back side of the system will begin to impact the area with very strong northwest winds developing in the cold advection regime. Precipitation developing within the trailing deformation zone looks to impact portions of south central Kansas early Tuesday night with thermal profiles supporting a mix of rain to snow. However, air temperatures just above freezing and relatively warmer ground temperatures should mitigate much in the way of any snow accumulation. The strong northwest winds will continue Wednesday morning before diminishing in the afternoon.